Let's Get Critical

Hundreds perhaps thousands of auto suppliers are right now hoping they are going to make it on to GM and Chrysler's list of critical suppliers. These are suppliers deemed by the auto manufacturers as "critical" to their continuing operations as they continue through and eventually exit Chapter 11. Any company entering Chapter 11 is of course provided protection from its creditors. Most of these creditors are suppliers of goods and services, everything from major subassemblies to office supplies. How it usually goes down is that the biggest suppliers who are owed the most dollars are assigned "critical" status and get paid most of their outstanding invoices at the originally presented payment terms. For GM and Chrysler this means the Tier One suppliers. Lower tier suppliers who don't make it on to the the OEM's list of critical suppliers will not be so lucky. Their payment will generally be extended 30 days or more beyond their originally presented terms or in many cases will be told their payment is "pending". The other shoe to drop for these lower tier suppliers is that their lines of credit will immediately be frozen, meaning that they are unable to make payroll or buy parts from their own vendors.

Hmmm. Those supply risk management gurus among you are already sensing where I am going here aren't you? It will not at all surprise this blogger if we hear about supply outages and quality problems in the months ahead from the new, "streamlined" post-Chapter 11 GM and Chrysler organizations. In protecting the "critical list" suppliers it's very likely that many of the lower tier suppliers will themselves have flatlined and left gaps in the auto supplier chain that will need to be backstopped by alternative sources that will take time to identify and qualify. And even then there may be teething problems in quality and service levels as the new lower tier vendors (many of whom I suspect will be offshore) are onboarded.

So as not to seem totally doom and gloom, this can all be managed. But there will need to be a plan. A plan that starts up front with a holistic set of criteria for defining what a "critical" supplier is over and above it's status as a tier one and it's annual revenues from Hoovers. Factors such as a lower tier supplier's impact on upper tier supply chain performance. Secondly a plan for recognizing that many lower tier domestic auto suppliers will unfortunately fail and that there will need to be early and proactive planning for replacing many of these with new (and in many cases offshore ) vendors. This means sourcing new vendors able to meet product and process specifications, and implementing global supply chain strategies capable of delivering required service levels at lowest total cost of ownership.